1. September Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Stress test limiting impact of falling mortgage rates
Canadian economy: Strong second quarter, but will it last?
Bank of Canada on hold for now
Download & Read Report? Click below:
BCREA Mortgage Rate Forecast
2. The BCREA Economics team has introduced the BCREA Nowcast
BCREA Nowcast—a new tool for tracking monthly growth in the BC Economy. Growth of provincial GDP is a key indicator of economic activity, but provincial GDP data is only available annually and with a considerable delay, which is why BCREA has developed this new tool. The Nowcast compiles monthly economic data into one easy-to-understand number, expressed as the year-over-year growth in the BC economy.
The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for July is 2.1 per cent, equaling estimated annual growth in June. That is the slowest estimated growth since May 2015. You can view the full report and charts here:
BCREA Nowcast Info
3. Brendon Ogmundson Steps Into Role of BCREA Chief Economist
Darlene Hyde, Chief Executive Officer of the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), is pleased to announce the appointment of Brendon Ogmundson as Chief Economist for BCREA.
Brendon has been with BCREA for nine years, most recently serving as Deputy Chief Economist. Earlier this year, he was awarded the Crystal Ball Award by the Association of Professional Economists of British Columbia for the quality of his economic forecasting.
New BCREA Chief Economist
4. Potential Uptake of the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive
Evaluating the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI) based on its principle eligibility criteria, the highest potential uptake of the FTHBI would be in more affordable regions located outside of the Lower Mainland. In contrast, the lowest uptake would be in the Lower Mainland and Victoria, accounting for 44 per cent of sales. This suggests that the FTHBI is expected to have limited impact on provincial home sales.
Differences in the potential uptake of the FTHBI across the select regions is largely explained by the allowable maximum house price. As such, the price threshold is the most limiting in regions with higher house prices, which tend to be concentrated in the Lower Mainland and Victoria.
The maximum income threshold is less important to potential uptake because the share of first-time homebuyers meeting this threshold is relatively comparable across the select regions.
Read full article: First-time home buyer incentive
Download full report: FTHBI Report